Context: Since the start of 2026, Latvia has prevented 10,000 attempts by foreigners to illegally enterits territory from Belarus. The State Border Guard Service discovered two tunnels at the border through which migrants were entering Latvia. In light of these developments, the country has not ruled out the possibility of a complete closure of the border with Belarus. On August 17, 2026, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs made this statement during a visit to the border region. He linked the influx of migrants to pressure that Belarus was putting on Latvia ahead of the Saeima elections.
On August 20, 2026, the program Ekspertnyi Klub. Politicheskoye RadioShow on Belarusian Radio’s First National Channel discussed the possible closure of the Latvian-Belarusian border. Maksim Kharyn, the host, stated that such a decision would hinder Latvia’s residents, who are allegedly moving to Belarus in large numbers.
“Latvians are fleeing to Belarus in droves these days. That’s a fact; we know that. The numbers are enormous. Off the charts,” said Kharyn.
The “enormous” figures cannot be verified using Belarusian statistical data. Neither Belstat nor the Ministry of Internal Affairs discloses this type of data. However, Latvia keeps records of its residents who are living and registered abroad. As of July 1, 2026, 1,352 Latvians were living in Belarus. That is about 0.5% of all Latvian residents registered abroad.
The trend over the past several years does not indicate a mass migration. Since 2015, around 1,000 Latvians have consistently been registered as living in Belarus: there were 1,064 as of July 1, 2015; 1,164 as of July 1, 2020; and 1,108 as of July 1, 2023. From 2024 to 2026, the increase became more noticeable. However, we’re still only talking about a few dozen people. There was an increase of 72 people by July 2024, 98 by July 2025, and 74 by July 2026.
Compared to other destinations, Belarus is not the most popular choice for relocation. It ranks near the bottom of the second ten among the countries where Latvians are registered to live abroad. The number of Latvians in the United Kingdom increased by 1,719 over the past year, by 816 in Germany, and by 791 in the United States. During the same period, the number of Latvians in Belarus increased by 74, matching the increase in Portugal.
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