Context: On August 19, 2026, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine announced Operation “Forest Gump,” revealing a group consisting of current and former members of Parliament, as well as high-ranking officials from the Office of the President. The investigation concerns the laundering of funds that were used to post bail for former Energy and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko. In June, 150 million hryvnias — almost €3 million — were posted on his behalf.
On August 18, 2026, Uladzimir Kazakou, the host of the program Ekspertnyi Klub. Politicheskoe Radio Show, spoke about Western countries’ expenditures to support Ukraine. He claimed that “users have dubbed these expenditures a ‘European-style scam.’”
“An analysis of per capita costs relative to average salaries revealed that the financial burden is distributed extremely unevenly. The least wealthy countries of the European Union have suffered the most from the impact on living standards. For instance, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are each spending an amount equivalent to one-third of their citizens’ average monthly salary in support of Kyiv. This naturally forces them to make sacrifices in the social sector. At the same time, the wealthiest nations with powerful military-industrial complexes — such as the United States and, within the European Union, Germany and France — contribute only a fraction of that amount in percentage terms,” the host stated.
The same information was published on the Nevolfovich Telegram channel the day before, on August 17. The post included a table showing aid to Ukraine per resident and comparing the amount with the average monthly salary in each country.
For instance, the table shows €688 per person for Estonia, which is approximately 32% of the average monthly salary of €2,100–2,150. In Norway, the figure is €1,909 per person, equivalent to 32–33% of the average monthly salary of €5,700–5,900. For Lithuania, the aid was estimated at €549 per person, or 22–24% of the average monthly salary, while for Latvia it was €348, or about 19%.
The data on the volume of aid to Ukraine was taken from a study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The calculation included not only military aid but also financial and humanitarian aid, ranging from weapons to loans and food.
However, comparing these amounts with a monthly salary creates a misleading impression of the period over which the spending occurred. Based on Kazakou’s statement, one might conclude that Estonian residents contribute roughly one-third of the average monthly salary to support Ukraine. In reality, the cited expenditures accumulated over the course of the war, from 2022 to 2026 — a period of 53 months. If Estonia’s aid is distributed over this period, the monthly amount per resident is about €13. This is approximately 0.6% of the average monthly salary, not one-third.
The claim that providing aid to Ukraine forces the country to reduce social spending is not supported by Estonia’s example. Over the four and a half years, the country spent just over €1 billion supporting Ukraine, while planning roughly 40 times as much in social spending over the same period.
Furthermore, Estonia’s social spending has increased annually rather than decreased. The total amount planned to be spent in the areas of “Welfare,” “Health,” and “A Smart and Active Population” increased from €7.283 billion in 2022 to €8.652 billion in 2023, €8.887 billion in 2024, and €9.472 billion in 2025. €9.74 billion in spending is budgeted for 2026.
The difference is even more striking in Norway. During the period under review, the country provided €11 billion in aid to Ukraine, while spending more than €600 billion on its own social programs.
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